Thai premier Paetongtarn Shinawatra speaks to Lieutenant General Boosin Padklang, commander of the 2nd Army Area. Several sources are warning that a new army putsch is a distinct possibility within weeks or months. The Council of Foreign Relations, Thailand’s Tourism Council and even the defence minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, have all warned that a “non-democratic accident” could occur in “coup-culture” Thailand. They note the two obvious dangers: the threat of bloodshed on the Thai-Cambodian closed borders, which are already under effective martial law on the Thai side, and looming anti-government street demonstrations getting out of hand. Behind both controversies is intense Thai patriotism and nationalism in sections of the Thai population. Border territorial disputes were present in the previous coup years, 2006 and 2014, though not at simmering points as they are now. The two putsches dislodged a pro-Shinawatra administrations and the composition of the present government is another key similarity at the present time. There have been 22 Thai coup attempts, 13 successful, in the last 100 years. On the other hand, there are reasons to question the imminence of another army takeover. Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, an international security expert, points out that the current military establishment is well aware that the economy at present is in a weak state which a coup could worsen. For example, international tourism could be hit especially if visitors found their insurances were invalid because of national martial law. A new anti-democratic intervention would be the first in the new reign and might attract special unpopularity because of that. Moreover, the constitutional court could intervene and either clear prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra of alleged constitutional breaches, or order her suspension pending judicial investigation. The Cambodian border issue could either deteriorate or improve, for example by a mutual decision to reopen land exit and entry points. But all commentators, optimistic and pessimistic, agree that the immediate issue will be the organized Bangkok demo set for the upcoming weekend. Whether this turns into a nasty and long-term standoff or is managed successfully by supervising police without army backup is likely the determinant. As former premier Prem Tinsulanonda once said, “All a coup achieves is to put a sticking plaster on a serious wound”.