While tourists may shy away from short-haul flights during times of conflict, affluent families, skilled professionals, and global nomads from war-torn regions are seeking more than a holiday — they’re relocating for peace of mind. Thailand, with its stability and cosmopolitan cities like Pattaya, is emerging as a sanctuary. (Photo: Courtesy of BCCT) PATTAYA, Thailand – As missiles struck Iranian nuclear sites in the early hours of June 22nd, most of the world braced for the obvious retaliation, market volatility, and a surge in global oil prices. But here in Thailand, thousands of kilometers away, the shockwaves took a quieter yet equally powerful form showing up in oil pumps, hotel bookings, and the growing murmurings among expat communities that perhaps… Thailand is starting to look like the world’s last sensible sanctuary. And Pattaya? It may very well become the front row seat for a once-in-a-generation shift. A Conflict That Travels Faster Than Missiles The U.S.-backed Israeli airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities (Operation Midnight Hammer) wasn’t just another geopolitical headline. It marked a dangerous escalation in a region already boiling over threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway responsible for nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply. Brent crude prices reacted instantly, surging over 7% in just a few days, climbing from $74 to $80, and flirting with the $90 mark. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are already floating worst-case scenarios of $120–$150 oil if the waterway closes or is militarized. Thailand, which imports over 55% of its crude from the Middle East, is directly exposed. But unlike war-torn nations, it’s not the threat of bombs that worries us here it’s the ripple effects on inflation, logistics, energy costs, and ultimately, tourism behavior. Latest Escalations Iran’s Missile Strikes and Continued Air Attacks According to reports from Yahoo News and CNN, 24 June Iran has responded to the airstrikes by firing ballistic missiles at U.S. military bases in Qatar. This marks a significant intensification of hostilities, raising fears of a broader conflict. The strikes targeted key installations in a region where U.S. forces maintain a critical presence, indicating that the war is no longer confined to isolated air raids but has entered a dangerous new phase of direct military exchanges. Meanwhile, the United States and Israel continue their coordinated air attacks on multiple Iranian nuclear and military sites, further destabilizing the region. The ongoing cycle of attacks and counterattacks threatens to disrupt global energy markets and increase geopolitical uncertainty. This escalation directly affects Thailand by raising the risk of prolonged instability in a region crucial to global energy supplies and maritime trade routes. Fewer Tourists, Tighter Wallets Thailand welcomed 15.52 million international visitors by mid-June 2025, a slight decline from last year. But in June alone the month the bombs began falling arrivals dropped a shocking 14% compared to the month before. That’s not a blip. It’s the beginning of a trend. Pattaya, long reliant on inbound tourism from Europe, the Middle East, and Russia, is feeling the strain already. Some beachfront hotels are reporting occupancy rates below 50%. Tour operators are quietly shelving expansion plans. And many mid-size businesses massage shops, restaurants, condo rentals are experiencing a squeeze between rising costs and disappearing foot traffic. But Here’s the Twist What If They Come to Stay? Here’s where things get interesting. While tourists may hesitate to take short haul flights during wartime, wealthy families, skilled professionals, and global nomads from conflict prone regions are looking to relocate not just for a vacation, but for peace of mind. Thailand, and especially cosmopolitan cities like Pattaya, stand out:  Neutral politics, friendly visa policies  High quality private hospitals  International schools  Affordable property  High-speed internet & lifestyle comfort It’s no longer just about fun in the sun. For many from Tel Aviv, Tehran, Beirut, or even Berlin, Thailand now represents stability. Real Estate & Hospitality A Window of Opportunity If you’re a hotelier, condo developer, property manager, or restaurateur, this is your moment but only if you pivot fast. Expect demand to shift from short-term tourists to mid and long-term residents. These are not backpackers. These are families seeking 6-month leases. Professionals needing serviced apartments. Entrepreneurs looking for co-working and co living packages. The Message Is Clear Don’t just prepare for tourists. Prepare for settlers. This isn’t opportunism. It’s preparation. The world is changing, and Pattaya may be the landing zone for a new kind of migration not driven by poverty, but by a desperate search for calm. Final Thoughts In times of crisis, some economies retreat. Others adapt. And a rare few reinvent. Pattaya, with all its color, complexity, and contradictions, could very well become Southeast Asia’s surprise safe haven a place not just to visit, but to belong, when the rest of the world feels like it’s losing its grip. It’s time for the city to get ready. The next wave of guests may not be coming to play. They may be coming to stay. Victor Wong (Peerasan Wongsri) Victor Law Pattaya/Tax expert Email: <[email protected]> Tel. 062-8795414