Professional insights into how “Trump 2.0” is shaping costs, portfolios and visas for retirees in Thailand. Prologue What Makes “Trump 2.0” Different? “Trump 1.0” relied on broad, product‑focused tariffs (Sections 232/301). “Trump 2.0” pivots to Section 899, invoking emergency tax powers to brand foreign tax regimes “unfair,” then layering extra U.S. withholding on dividends, interest and royalties as a geopolitical weapon . Episode 1 March May 2025 Recap Introduction “Welcome to Episode 1. I’m Victor, your trusted tax‑law advisor. In this segment, we’ll recap the key milestones from March through May 2025, and how each move by the U.S. Treasury rippled through Thailand’s markets, import prices and retirement‑visa policies.” March 5, Treasury Watch List Notice Treasury flagged Thailand under Section 899 as a “potential unfair” regime. The baht swung 32.80–33.10 THB/USD, SET Index fell ~0.9%, and importers pre‑baked 3–5% markups on U.S. devices and electronics. April 2, “Unfair” Designation & 20% Surcharge BOI incentives deemed “unfair,” triggering a 20% surcharge (on top of 30%) for U.S. recipients of dividends, interest and royalties. Roughly $15 million outflows on April 3–4; import markups rose 6–8% (electronics) and 5–7% (medical supplies) . May 10 –18, Behind‑the‑Scenes Talks & Partial Rollback Thailand capped BOI holidays at 3 years; the U.S. suspended the 20% surcharge for compliant entities registering by June 30 (phasing to 10% in Q3, 0% by Q4). Result $15 million/day inflows into SET, baht ~32.85 THB/USD, import buffers eased (electronics +4%, medical –2%), visa proofs relaxed to THB 900,000 or THB 2 million deposit. Cross‑Month Summary (March–May 2025) Category March 2025 April 2025 May 2025 Section 899 Status Watch‑List Notice (Mar 5) “Unfair” Designation (Apr 2) Partial Rollback Announced (May 18) USD/THB Range 32.80–33.10 (±0.8%) 32.60–33.20 (±1.8%) 32.75–33.10 (±1.0%) SET Index Movement 1,655 → ~1,640 (–0.9%) 1,660 → 1,630 → 1,650 1,670 → 1,685 Portfolio Income (U.S.) Dividends down ~2–3% 50% withholding on dividends & interest Forecast 60% net (40% withheld) Electronics Import Costs +5% vs Feb +8% vs March –4% correction from April peak Medical Supply Costs +3–4% (stents & pumps) +5–7% (specialty meds/devices) –2–3% rollback from April levels Visa‑Renewal Requirements THB 800k/year or THB 3 m deposit Raised to THB 1 m/year or THB 3 m deposit Relaxed to THB 900k/year or THB 2 m deposit   Episode 2 June 2025 Developments Introduction “In Episode 2, I’ll walk you through June’s freshest developments Congressional moves in Washington, shifting market sentiment in Bangkok, emerging visa policy signals, and how expat communities in Pattaya and beyond are reacting.” June 3, Mid‑Month Baht & SET Dynamics After the partial rollback talks, the baht oscillated between 70–32.90 THB/USD, reflecting both relief from the rollback and lingering uncertainty over Section 899’s fate. The SET Index traded in a 1,675–1,690 range, buoyed by returning foreign inflows but capped by profit taking among exporters. org June 9, U.S. Congressional Pushback Intensifies The Financial Services Roundtable and U.S. Chamber of Commerce publicly urged Senate leaders to strip Section 899 from the upcoming budget reconciliation bill, arguing it “unintentionally penalizes U.S. multinationals and raises borrowing costs.” Key Senate offices confirmed they are weighing amendments to carve out “qualified emerging‑market partners” like Thailand from the surcharge’s scope. June 12, Thai Consumer & Expat Confidence Survey A joint UTCC/Expat Bangkok survey found 53% of retirees felt “moderately to very concerned” about further U.S. tax escalations, up from 38% in April. Nearly 40% reported delaying elective medical procedures or gadget upgrades in mid‑June due to price‑shock fears. June 14, Healthcare & Insurance Cost Signals Private‑hospital groups in Bangkok announced a 3–4% surcharge on imported medical devices (stents, imaging probes) citing residual U.S. tariff risk even for products arriving in June. Expat health‑insurance underwriters are updating policies to include “retaliatory‑tax surcharge” riders, adding ~1–2% to annual premiums for U.S.‑exported pharmaceuticals. Visa Renewal “Soft” Circulars in the Field Though no formal Immigration Bureau notice has been published, branches in Chonburi report that from June 10 onward, retirees renewing OA visas are being asked to demonstrate either THB 1 million annual income, or A THB 2 million‑plus Thai deposit Officers have also begun checking for “forward contract confirmations” if applicants declare USD‑denominated pensions, reflecting heightened scrutiny of currency‑conversion risk. Expat Community Response & Town‑Hall Briefings Expat clubs in Pattaya and Hua Hin organized “Trump 2.0 Town Halls” on June 15–17, featuring guest U.S. CPAs and local bank FX specialists. Topics included Structuring pension disbursements to minimize surcharge exposure. Bundling forward contracts with local deposits to satisfy visa‑renewal requirements. Exploring alternative visas (e.g., investment‑based) for those concerned about further O‑A tightening. Banking‑Sector FX Innovations Beyond standard 3‑month forwards, two Thai banks launched “PensionPlus” dual‑currency deposits that automatically convert 25% of each USD credit at a pre‑agreed THB rate helping meet both living costs and visa‑proof thresholds. A local fintech piloted an “FX swing‑watch” mobile alert, notifying users when USD/THB breaches preset bands (e.g., 32.70 or 33.00). Fiscal & Monetary Insights The Bank of Thailand’s February 26 policy‑meeting minutes noted that baht volatility driven by trade‑policy shocks could warrant further fine‑tuning of monetary settings to stabilize markets. com This deeper dive into June combines hard data exchange‑rate bands, SET ranges, survey results with on‑the‑ground color from healthcare, banking and expat networks, all backed by up‑to‑date sources. Episode 3 What’s Next & Practical Advice Introduction “Welcome to our final installment. In Episode 3, I’ll offer forward‑looking guidance what to watch in Washington, and concrete steps every retirement‑visa holder in Thailand can take today to manage risk.” Monitor U.S. Legislative Developments Any amendment or delay of Section 899 could soften both withholding surcharges and import‑cost buffers. Stay tuned to industry updates and consult a Bangkok CPA for late‑2025 expat filings com. Lock In Exchange Rates With USD/THB trading ~32.80–32.90, consider booking a 3‑month forward for upcoming pension tranches. Even a brief rally to 32.70 could save ฿3,000–฿5,000 per $6,000 com. Diversify Currency Exposure Shift 20–30% of U.S.‑sourced dividends into ASEAN focused ETFs or local Thai bond funds (for non‑U.S. retirees) to reduce vulnerability to future surcharges. Maintain THB Liquidity Keep THB 300,000–400,000 in a high liquidity Thai account to absorb sudden markups on medical devices or electronics without converting USD at unfavourable rates. Prepare Visa‑Renewal Documentation Even if no new circular appears, hold proof of THB 1 million+ annual income (or THB 2–3 million deposits) and maintain medical‑insurance coverage ≥THB 1 million. Follow Official Channels Regularly check U.S. Treasury press releases and BOI announcements for changes to Section 899 designations or Thailand’s tax‑incentive framework. Thank you for joining me, Victor, for this professional three‐episode briefing. Stay proactive, stay diversified, and you’ll be best positioned to navigate the evolving “Trump 2.0” landscape.