As the baht strengthens to 32.45 against the dollar, hopes for Thailand’s tourism revival hinge on a high-energy final quarter — but it’ll need more than sunshine and smiles to stimulate spending. (Photo by Jetsada Homklin) PATTAYA, Thailand – As Thailand’s struggling tourism sector pins its hopes on a strong rebound in the final quarter of 2025, economists warn that a cocktail of currency volatility, weak global demand, and geopolitical unease means the road ahead still requires substantial stimulus and smart policymaking. According to TMBThanachart (ttb), the Thai baht opened stronger Monday morning (4 August) at 32.45 baht per U.S. dollar, appreciating from Friday’s close of 32.87 baht. The current trading range is estimated between 32.35 and 32.65 baht per dollar. The baht’s strength is partially fueled by disappointing U.S. jobs data, which showed only 73,000 new jobs created in July — well below the market forecast of 110,000 — and a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.2%. Adding to investor speculation, the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year, possibly beginning in September, prompting further weakening of the dollar. Markets were also shaken by news that Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will resign early, potentially giving President Donald Trump a quicker-than-expected opportunity to nominate a dovish successor should he win re-election, fueling more talk of looser monetary policy. Against this backdrop, Thailand’s outbound and inbound tourism dynamics remain fragile. In July, foreign investors were net sellers in both Thai bonds (2.2 billion baht) and equities (1.89 billion baht), reflecting ongoing caution. And while hotel operators in cities like Pattaya have seen modest weekend upticks, sustained momentum is lacking. Industry analysts say the final quarter – October to December – will be pivotal. Major events like Pattaya’s Fireworks Festival, international conferences, and the high season for European and Russian tourists may help. However, insiders argue that without targeted incentives, visa facilitation, and promotional campaigns, Thailand risks falling short of its tourism revival goals. Moreover, a stronger baht could hurt the country’s price competitiveness, particularly as regional rivals like Vietnam and Indonesia continue to draw long-haul visitors with more favorable exchange rates. “Tourism may be emotional, but the spending decisions are rational,” said one Pattaya hotelier. “If your baht goes too far up, your beds go empty.” For now, all eyes are on global economic indicators, Thailand’s July inflation report, foreign fund flows, gold price trends, and the evolving Thai-Cambodian border situation — all of which could shape whether Pattaya’s beaches end 2025 as a story of recovery, or a missed opportunity.