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China the key to a lasting Thai-Cambodian peace say experts
Thai and Cambodian diplomats met top Chinese vice-minister Sun Weidong in Shanghai the next day after the ceasefire.
Donald Trump may have shocked Thailand Cambodia into a hastily-arranged ceasefire, but his interest has flagged now that he has awarded both countries a trade deal. The tariff levy on imports to US has reduced from a 36% threat to 19%, on a par with similar deals with Indonesia and the Philippines according to the White House.
But the real potential dealmaker is China with a keen interest in avoiding more trouble in her own backyard. Following the Malaysian-backed ceasefire on July 28, both Thailand and Cambodia rushed diplomats next day to Shanghai to meet with Chinese vice-minister for foreign affairs, Sun Weidong. The general idea was to show Beijing has a far more sincere and friendly partner than the unpredictable Trumpian US.
Thitian Pongsudhirat, professor of international relations at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn university, said that China had regional stakes such as smooth trade and trouble-free communications to pursue her own influential agenda in south east Asia. But Trump simply wanted a peacemaking deal, a fact which has enabled Beijing to represent itself as a more understanding and respectful mediator in the long run.
Meanwhile The Australian Broadcasting Corporation has published a detailed report on the arms buildup in both Thailand and Cambodia. Phnom Penh has grown ever closer to Beijing as well as Moscow. In the recent flareups, Cambodian troops deployed Chinese PHL-81 multiple rocket systems, whilst Russian-made infantry tanks were also in action. The stereotype that Cambodia is still heavily dependent on Soviet era technology is a myth, according to arms experts. Military drones were used effectively on both sides.
Swedish-made JAS Gripen supersonic fighter aircraft were successfully deployed by Thailand prior to the ceasefire.
Whilst Thailand has also moved closer to China, especially since the military coup of 2014, she has still purchased American technology such as F-16 fighter jets, supported by US platforms, and Swedish-made Gripen aircraft. The 2025 border spats have shown that, although Thailand has a much bigger army and a hugely-better military budget, the fighting is more balanced than was the case in earlier violent border confrontations. The notion that Thai forces in a future war could reach Phnom Penh in a week is nonsensical, according to the Office of Strategic Studies, a European thinktank.
The United Nations Security Council recently stated an obvious wish for a ceasefire but did not endorse sending UN peacekeeping troops, nor order border investigations nor authorize a referral to the International Court of Justice at The Hague. The 10-nation Asean bloc can be helpful in future by hosting conferences or profiling its influential chairman Anwar Ibrahim, prime minister of Malaysia. But if a solution is to be found to the ongoing Thai-Cambodian disputes, the most effective influencer is China. No matter how long it takes.
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