Pattaya tourists face a stronger baht for now — a new reality requiring adjustment to higher exchange rates and travel costs. PATTAYA, Thailand – Despite concerns and fluctuating headlines, there are currently no clear signs that the Thai baht will weaken anytime soon. Tourists visiting Pattaya and other parts of Thailand should adjust their expectations and accept that the baht remains strong—something that directly affects exchange rates and travel budgets. SCB Financial Markets (SCB FM), the financial markets division of Siam Commercial Bank, projects that the baht will continue to strengthen, mainly driven by a weakening U.S. dollar. Patrick Poulier, Executive Vice President and Head of Financial Markets at SCB, explained that recent volatility in the baht was largely influenced by domestic political developments, such as the Constitutional Court’s suspension of the prime minister, which temporarily weakened the baht and created selling opportunities for exporters. Looking ahead over the next month, Poulier cautioned that ongoing political uncertainty in Thailand and the threat of U.S. tariffs could cause temporary depreciation in the baht. The U.S. is expected to impose tariffs possibly exceeding 20 percent on Thai goods due to unresolved issues surrounding the rerouting of Chinese products through Thailand. President Donald Trump’s threat to levy a 25 percent tax on Japanese imports adds to this uncertainty. However, Poulier emphasized that before any new tariffs are officially announced, the baht may actually strengthen as the U.S. dollar index continues to weaken. If upcoming U.S. labor market data underperforms expectations, this could further strengthen the baht, creating favorable conditions for importers buying U.S. dollars. SCB Financial Markets forecasts a continued strong Thai baht, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar despite domestic political uncertainty and trade tensions. Over the medium to long term, SCB FM remains optimistic that the baht will maintain its upward trend. The fundamental driver is the global weakening of the U.S. dollar, which is expected to divert capital flows into Asia and Europe. The bank forecasts the baht will trade between 31.50 and 32.50 against the U.S. dollar by the end of the year. Wachirawat Banchuen, SCB’s Senior Market Strategist and Financial Economist, noted that the Thai Monetary Policy Committee is expected to cut interest rates twice more this year, responding to a slowing economy and ongoing political challenges. These cuts will likely lower yields on short-term government bonds, while long-term bond yields may decline more slowly due to high global yields. Lower crude oil prices, following reduced inflation risks after the Israel-Iran conflict, ease upward pressure on Thailand’s policy rates and bond yields. For tourists in Pattaya, this means the baht’s strength isn’t likely to ease soon, which may result in less favorable currency exchange rates and higher costs when converting foreign money. Visitors and expats must accept this reality and plan their budgets accordingly as the strong baht continues to shape Thailand’s tourism economy.